基于改进灰色-多元回归组合预测模型的燃煤电厂智慧水务研究

以某燃煤电厂水务系统为研究对象，对机组运行参数和水量历史数据进行筛选和关联性分析，根据前期水平衡测试结果，结合响应面分析验证，发现机组负荷、蒸发损失系数、浓缩倍率和循环水温升这四个因素能够对全厂供水量产生关键性影响。基于灰色理论和多元非线性回归分析，分别建立各因素的灰色预测模型GM(1, 1)，再将灰色模型预测值作为自变量输入到多元非线性回归方程中，得到了改进灰色-多元非线性回归组合的供水量预测模型，其模型拟合度R²为0.913且与真实值的平均相对误差为6.9%左右，实现了灰色模型和回归模型优势互补，有效地预测该电厂供水量未来变化；而供水量预测是智慧水务建设的关键所在，是水务管理和智能调度的主要依据，也是实现供水管网漏损和仪表故障报警的重要途径。     

Potential application of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) for hydrogen storage: Simulation by artificial intelligent techniques

Metal-organic frameworks are a new class of materials for hydrogen adsorption/storage applications. The hydrogen storage capacity of this structure is typically related to pressure, temperature, surface area, and adsorption enthalpy. Literature provides no reliable correlation for estimating the hydrogen uptake capacity of MOFs from these easy-measured variables. Therefore, this study introduces several straightforward and accurate artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to fill this gap, initially determining the appropriate topology of AI-based methods, then comparing their performances by statistical criteria, and introducing the most accurate. This study used artificial neural networks, hybrid neuro-fuzzy systems, and support vector machines as estimators. The general regression neural networks (GRNN) with a spread of 7.92 × 10⁻⁴ shows the highest correlation with the literature data and provides a relative absolute deviation of 5.34%, mean squared error of 0.059, and coefficient of determination of 0.9946.     

Quantile regression on the nonlinear relationship between land use and trip time

This study conceptually confirms and empirically tests the potential that the significance and magnitude of the compact land use–trip time relationship differ by the degree of compactness and trip time. Based on a quantile regression of about 25,000 commuters in Seoul, Korea, the empirical analysis suggests a significant level for each neighbourhood land use variable and a magnitude change within the level. Weekend trip and school densities are significant for shorter trip time commuters, population density is significant for longer trip time commuters, and pedestrian density is significant for all commuters. Wherever significant, the land use variables exert stronger effects as their values increase.     

Robust method to provide exponential convergence of model parameters solving linear time-invariant plant identification problem

The scope of this research is a problem of parameters identification of a linear time-invariant plant, which (1) input signal is not frequency-rich, (2) is subjected to initial conditions and external disturbances. The memory regressor extension (MRE) scheme, in which a specially derived differential equation is used as a filter, is applied to solve the above-stated problem. Such a filter allows us to obtain a bounded regressor value, for which a condition of the initial excitation (IE) is met. Using the MRE scheme, the recursive least-squares method with the forgetting factor is used to derive an adaptation law. The following properties have been proved for the proposed approach. If the IE condition is met, then: (1) the parameter error of identification is bounded and converges to zero exponentially (if there are no external disturbances) or to a set (in the case of them) with an adjustable rate, (2) the parameters adaptation rate is a finite value. The above-mentioned properties are mathematically proved and demonstrated via simulation experiments.     

中高压变频器冷却方案比较和选型分析

随着电力电子器件的发展,性能优异的中高压变频器在各行各业中得到越来越广泛的应用,能否处理好变频器的散热问题是其长期稳定运行的关键。分析了中高压变频器热量产生来源,并从技术可行性、可靠性、经济性等角度对不同冷却方案的特点进行比较,并结合实际的工程案例,给出合理的变频器冷却方案选型建议,可作为工程电气设计时中高压变频器冷却方案选型参考。     

Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Influence of accelerated curing on the compressive strength of polymer-modified concrete

In recent building practice, rapid construction is one of the principal requisites. Furthermore, in designing concrete structures, compressive strength is the most significant of all parameters. While 3-d and 7-d compressive strength reflects the strengths at early phases, the ultimate strength is paramount. An effort has been made in this study to develop mathematical models for predicting compressive strength of concrete incorporating ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) at the later phases. Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test was used to examine distribution of the data. The compressive strength of EVA-modified concrete was studied by incorporating various concentrations of EVA as an admixture and by testing at ages of 28, 56, 90, 120, 210, and 365 d. An accelerated compressive strength at 3.5 hours was considered as a reference strength on the basis of which all the specified strengths were predicted by means of linear regression fit. Based on the results of KS goodness-of-fit test, it was concluded that KS test statistics value (D) in each case was lower than the critical value 0.521 for a significance level of 0.05, which demonstrated that the data was normally distributed. Based on the results of compressive strength test, it was concluded that the strength of EVA-modified specimens increased at all ages and the optimum dosage of EVA was achieved at 16% concentration. Furthermore, it was concluded that predicted compressive strength values lies within a 6% difference from the actual strength values for all the mixes, which indicates the practicability of the regression equations. This research work may help in understanding the role of EVA as a viable material in polymer-based cement composites.     

一种新的风电场复杂下垫面场地校准模型

针对现有方法模型简单、气象因素考虑不足和缺少异常数据检测等问题,提出一种基于相对密度离群因子（relative RDOF）异常检测和支持向量回归（SVR）组合的场地校准模型。首先,通过RDOF与四分位法对测风塔与风电机组距下垫面相同高度风速间的风速比进行异常数据检测,间接实现风速预处理;同时,根据测风塔与风电机组相同高度风切变序列的相关性,动态引入大气稳定度等级,与多种常规自然因素共同作为模型输入。然后,建立SVR场地校准模型修正风速。最后,通过算例验证,并与国际电工委员会（IEC）标准方法进行对比。结果表明,该方法可有效提升场地校准模型的风速修正精度。     

带有约束条件的四参数Logistic曲线分析在干扰素生物学活性检定中的应用

目的改进目前干扰素(interferon,IFN)生物学活性检定中的数据处理方法。方法在四参数Logistic曲线回归中加入约束条件,使之成斜度比例或平行曲线。结果用改进的方法对已有的实验数据进行分析,生物学活性计算结果与当前检定方法近似。此方法可对实验的可靠性进行初步估计,并可估计检测结果的置信区间。结论带约束条件的四参数Logistic曲线分析法可用于IFN生物学活性检定,模型在统计学方面较目前的数据处理方法更完整、可靠。     

接顶率对充填体稳定性的影响研究

为了研究充填接顶率对充填体稳定性的影响,运用MIDAS有限元软件建立了不同接顶率下胶结充填矿柱稳定性分析模型。在研究影响充填接顶率主要因素的基础上,得到充填次数与充填接顶率的关系方程。采用MIDAS软件创建了11个不同接顶率的矿岩及充填体模型,通过分析不同充填接顶率时胶结充填体的受力状况,对胶结充填体安全稳定性进行综合评价,从而得到较合理的充填接顶率。将该研究成果运用于某多金属矿山,当一步采场充填接顶率为72.6%时,充填次数少、充填成本低且能保证采矿作业的安全性。该研究为其他类似矿山科学合理地提高充填接顶率提供了一种全新的指导方向。